Tracks how earnings picks performed after reporting.
Filter by board status, verification, time, and fundamentals.
Showing: Verified Only
Total
53
Made Board
53
Beats
37
Misses
14
In Line
2
Hit Rate
72.5%
Confidence Bucket Performance
Only reported names that actually made the board are included below.
High Confidence
Reported: 11
Beats: 6 Misses: 4 In Line: 1
Hit Rate: 60%
Median Surprise: +1.60%
Avg Surprise: +57.84%
Trimmed Avg: +46.11% (excl. outliers)
Worst: -15.71% Best: +236.91%
Medium Confidence
Reported: 24
Beats: 17 Misses: 6 In Line: 1
Hit Rate: 73.9%
Median Surprise: +6.54%
Avg Surprise: +16.33%
Trimmed Avg: +12.28% (excl. outliers)
Worst: -88.56% Best: +210.29%
Watchlist
Reported: 18
Beats: 14 Misses: 4 In Line: 0
Hit Rate: 77.8%
Median Surprise: +6.75%
Avg Surprise: -14.60%
Trimmed Avg: +8.37% (excl. outliers)
Worst: -475.41% Best: +78.68%
Grade Performance
Win rate, median & average surprise % by grade. Trimmed avg excludes the single best and worst outlier.
A
Reported: 11
Beats: 6 Misses: 4 In Line: 1
Hit Rate: 60%
Median Surprise: +1.60%
Avg Surprise: +57.84%
Trimmed Avg: +46.11% (excl. outliers)
Worst: -15.71% Best: +236.91%
B
Reported: 24
Beats: 17 Misses: 6 In Line: 1
Hit Rate: 73.9%
Median Surprise: +6.54%
Avg Surprise: +16.33%
Trimmed Avg: +12.28% (excl. outliers)
Worst: -88.56% Best: +210.29%
C
Reported: 12
Beats: 11 Misses: 1 In Line: 0
Hit Rate: 91.7%
Median Surprise: +8.80%
Avg Surprise: -30.66%
Trimmed Avg: +8.41% (excl. outliers)
Worst: -475.41% Best: +23.42%
D
Reported: 4
Beats: 2 Misses: 2 In Line: 0
Hit Rate: 50%
Median Surprise: -1.40%
Avg Surprise: +17.59%
Trimmed Avg: -1.40% (excl. outliers)
Worst: -5.52% Best: +78.68%
F
Reported: 2
Beats: 1 Misses: 1 In Line: 0
Hit Rate: 50%
Median Surprise: +17.36%
Avg Surprise: +17.36%
Worst: -16.31% Best: +51.02%
Reported Names
Only names that made the board are shown.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Grade | Setup Tier | Score | Risk | Trade Tag | Price | Exp EPS | Act EPS | EPS Δ % | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | CVX | Chevron Corp | C | Watchlist | 38.0 | Low Growth | Fade | $185.21 | 1.33 | 1.41 | +5.71% | Beat |
| 2026-05-01 | RIVN | Rivian Automotive Inc - Class A | B | Medium Confidence | 45.0 | Low Growth | Conditional | $16.52 | -0.63 | -0.55 | +12.43% | Beat |
| 2026-05-01 | XOM | Exxon Mobil Corp | B | Medium Confidence | 43.0 | Low Growth | Conditional | $148.91 | 1.32 | 1.16 | -12.11% | Miss |
